{"id":11983,"date":"2009-02-08T16:30:13","date_gmt":"2009-02-08T15:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/192.220.58.236\/blog\/?p=136"},"modified":"2021-07-01T12:29:36","modified_gmt":"2021-07-01T10:29:36","slug":"bad_decisions_just_blame_evolu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/2009\/02\/bad_decisions_just_blame_evolu.html","title":{"rendered":"Bad Decisions: Just Blame Evolution?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"display: inline; border-width: 0px;\" title=\"charles darwin birthday\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/WindowsLiveWriter\/BadDecisionsBlameDarwin_9BA2\/charles%20darwin%20birthday_3.jpg?resize=480%2C444&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"charles darwin birthday\" width=\"480\" height=\"444\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>February 12th 2009 will mark the 200th anniversary of the birth of naturalist <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Charles_Darwin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Charles Robert Darwin<\/a>. He researched, popularized, and will forever be associated with what is probably the biggest idea ever: <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Evolution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Evolution<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/WindowsLiveWriter\/BadDecisionsBlameDarwin_9BA2\/belief%20in%20evolution_2.gif?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px;\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/WindowsLiveWriter\/BadDecisionsBlameDarwin_9BA2\/belief%20in%20evolution_thumb.gif?resize=256%2C440&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"belief in evolution\" width=\"256\" height=\"440\" align=\"right\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a>Despite the overwhelming evidence, there are still, sadly, many people who don\u2019t believe in it. According to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/science\/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13059028\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Economist<\/a>: &#8220;In the United States a Gallup poll conducted last year found that only 14% of people agreed with the proposition that \u201chumans developed over millions of years\u201d, up from 9% in 1982.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>At one level, it&#8217;s not their fault. Evolution argues, after all, that we are all just meat-based bundles of algorithms designed to perpetual our genes.<\/p>\n<p>It shouldn&#8217;t be any surprise that we are sometimes quite astoundingly bad at evaluating data and making decisions.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s just a very short, incomplete, list of some of the things that we know we do badly:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We\u2019re far more open to data that <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Confirmation_bias\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">confirms our existing beliefs<\/a><\/li>\n<li>We value things more just because we <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Endowment_effect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">happen to already own them<\/a><\/li>\n<li>We value <a href=\"http:\/\/www.iht.com\/articles\/2009\/02\/03\/healthscience\/snvital.1-421762.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">300 cents more than $3<\/a><\/li>\n<li>We prefer to <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Herd_instinct\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">let others make decisions for us<\/a><\/li>\n<li>We prefer to <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ultimatum_game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">punish others rather than make a gain<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Even <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Anchoring\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">exposure to random numbers can influence decisions<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, ironically, a refusal to accept the theory of evolution might actually be viewed as evidence for its existence. Certain types of belief and superstition appear to be (or to have been) more important for long-term survival than simple logic. Or maybe the observed problems are unfortunate side-effects of more important algorithms.<\/p>\n<h4>Technology Needs to Make up for Flawed Human Beings<\/h4>\n<p>All this has consequences on business intelligence. Ultimately, there\u2019s no point in investing a fortune in providing the right information, at the right time, to the right person if they are going to brazenly ignore or misinterpret it.<\/p>\n<p>Technology obviously can\u2019t \u201cfix people,\u201d but should do a better job of helping us detect and avoid situations where our natural decision processes may go wrong.<\/p>\n<p>___________________________________________<\/p>\n<p>Image credit: cake by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/robino\/389594727\/sizes\/l\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">robokow<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s the 200th anniversary of Darwin&#8217;s birth this week . Evolution has left us with a legacy of poor decision-making. Technology should help more.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[160,204,319,371],"class_list":["post-11983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-bi","tag-business-intelligence","tag-darwin","tag-decisions"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/charles-darwin-birthday_3-1.jpg?fit=480%2C444&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3X9RF-37h","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11983","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11983"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11983\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20485,"href":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11983\/revisions\/20485"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6209"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timoelliott.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}