Review of 2008 Predictions: How did I do?

Last February, I chose my top 5 BI predictions for 2008. It’s now almost the end of the year and I’ve started working on 2009 predictions — but before that post, how do last year’s stack up?

First, I note that I didn’t really propose anything radical, and most of them are impossible to actually measure, but here goes my subjective assessment — always interested in your disagreements…

1. The BI World Divides into Three. Certainly seems like it to me, but unfortunately, I don’t know of any official figures that would back up my hunch that the remaining independents have been losing market share (IDC only recently came out with the 2007 numbers, which showed the independents staying stable/growing slightly from 2005 to 2007). And I was clearly wrong in predicting the acquisitions would continue in 2008.

2. Technology Goes up Another Level of Abstraction. Not yet. In fact, because of overlapping products, many conversations have gone down a level into the weeds of exactly how which interfaces connects to which data sources. (Although companies are certainly more interested in buying big bundles of everything they need, see next point)

3. A Surge in Standardization. A huge surge in interest, but relatively little actual standardization this year (the big deals are, of course, traditionally in 4Q).

4. An Increase in Innovation. Again, not yet — I think it’s happening, but it’s not yet public.

5. BI success. Awareness of BI among senior leaders has risen massively, but this hasn’t yet translated into greater project success.

So, overall: I still believe these are the underlying trends, but I forgot that there’s a big gap between trends and real-life deployments.